Election projection senate
Election projections as of today!
538's final forecasts for the 2024 election
Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election.
Election projection senate
On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.
Their votes this year will matter more than ever: According to 538’s forecasts for the White House, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, control of the federal government is firmly up for grabs.
Our final model runs (published at 6 a.m. Eastern on Nov. 5) give Republicans a roughly 9-in-10 chance of winning control of the Senate, while the House and presidency are both toss-ups. The race for the White House, in fact, may be the closest presidential election in over a century.
The presidency
Let’s start with the race everyone is watching.
According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance